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Photo taken on Jan 4, 2022 shows a nucleic acid testing site at Northwestern Polytechnical University in Xi'an, capital of Northwest China's Shaanxi province. [Photo by Zheng Tingpeng/chinadaily.com.cn]

A team of analysts from Lanzhou University recently predicted that the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to end globally in late 2023, with infections worldwide reaching at least 750 million.

The prediction was made using the Global Prediction System of the COVID-19 Pandemic (GPCP) created at the university.

Following are excerpts of an interview with Huang Jianping, head of the prediction team:

Q: Which is the most accurate epidemic forecast made by the system so far?

Huang: Since its launch in May 2020, the GPCP has been making daily, monthly and seasonal predictions for more than 180 countries using epidemic data. Predictions for the epidemic in 2021 in Shijiazhuang, Tonghua, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Zhengzhou and other cities were basically consistent with the actual situation.

Q: What does the system predict?

Huang: In addition to predicting daily, monthly and seasonal waves for more than 180 countries worldwide, the system can also predict important points, such as peak number of daily cases, the ending time and the cumulative number of infections.

Q: What scientific data and related social or economic factors are considered in making predictions?

Huang: This prediction system combines advanced climate prediction techniques with epidemic models. The influence of virus variation, government control measures, people's self-protection measures, vaccinations and natural factors — such as temperature and humidity — were considered comprehensively.

The epidemic data used in the prediction model are downloaded from Johns Hopkins University. The meteorological data such as temperature and humidity are downloaded from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NASA.

Q: Do new virus variants affect accuracy?

Huang: The system also applies to the current outbreak caused by variants of SARS-CoV-2.

Q: The system can be used to predict other emerging outbreaks?

Huang: For other emerging infectious diseases, predictions can be made by adjusting the prediction model and parameter scheme.